The Margin · every race, by the numbers
Free, daily poll averages and seat projections across seven democracies, plus sport.
United States2026 House · seat projectionDem 44.2%United KingdomNext general election · seat projectionRUK 27.0%GermanyBundestag · seat projectionAfD 28.1%FranceAssemblée nationale · vote-share forecastRN 34.0%ItalyCamera & Senato · seat projectionFdI 28.0%CanadaHouse of Commons · seat projectionLPC 43.8%AustraliaHouse of Representatives · seat projectionALP 53.5%NetherlandsTweede Kamer · seat projectionGL-PvdA 16.4%SpainCongreso · seat projectionPP 32.8%PolandSejm · seat projectionKO 31.4%SwedenRiksdag · seat projectionS 32.2%IrelandDáil Éireann · seat projectionInd 21.1%PortugalAssembleia · seat projectionPS 29.1%AustriaNationalrat · seat projectionFPOe 37.2%BelgiumChamber · seat projectionNVA 16.7%DenmarkFolketing · seat projectionS 21.0%FinlandEduskunta · seat projectionSDP 23.8%GreeceHellenic Parliament · seat projectionND 29.4%CzechiaPoslanecká sněmovna · seat projectionANO 32.3%RomaniaCamera Deputaților · seat projectionAUR 35.0%HungaryOrszággyűlés · seat projectionTISZA 49.8%SlovakiaNárodná rada · seat projectionPS 25.2%CroatiaSabor · seat projectionHDZ 31.0%BulgariaNational Assembly · seat projectionPB 46.2%SloveniaDržavni zbor · seat projectionSDS 27.5%LithuaniaSeimas · seat projectionLSDP 28.1%LatviaSaeima · seat projectionJV 22.1%EstoniaRiigikogu · seat projectionIsamaa 29.9%LuxembourgChamber of Deputies · seat projectionCSV 21.8%MaltaHouse of Representatives · seat projectionPL 52.5%CyprusHouse of Representatives · seat projectionDISY 27.1%SwitzerlandNationalrat · seat projectionUDC 30.4%NorwayStorting · seat projectionFrP 29.6%IcelandAlthing · seat projectionS 28.6%SerbiaNational Assembly · seat projectionSNS 47.1%AlbaniaKuvendi · seat projectionPS 53.27%North MacedoniaSobranie · seat projectionVMRO 44.58%MontenegroSkupština · seat projectionDPS 26.3%Bosnia and HerzegovinaHouse of Representatives · seat projectionSDA 17.23%KosovoKuvendi · seat projectionLVV 47.13%MoldovaParliament · seat projectionPAS 42.6%UkraineVerkhovna Rada · official result, not competitiveSN 43.16%AndorraGeneral Council · baseline forecastDA 32.66%San MarinoGrand and General Council · seat projectionPDCS 34.14%LiechtensteinLandtag · seat projectionVU 38.32%MonacoConseil National · baseline forecastUNM 89.63%BrazilPresidential first round · vote-share forecastPT 41.8%MexicoChamber of Deputies · vote-share forecastMORENA 43.3%ArgentinaNational coalition vote · vote-share forecastFP 35.2%ColombiaSenate · seat projectionPH 23.7%PeruChamber of Deputies · seat projectionFP 14.7%ChileChamber of Deputies · seat projectionREP 13.3%EcuadorNational Assembly · seat projectionADN 43.3%BoliviaChamber of Deputies · seat projectionPDC 32.2%UruguayGeneral election · seat projectionFA 46.1%ParaguaySenate · seat projectionANR 45.7%Costa RicaLegislative Assembly · seat projectionPPSO 45.2%PanamaNational Assembly · baseline forecastIND 24.1%Dominican RepublicChamber of Deputies · seat projectionPRM 48.4%GuatemalaCongress national list · seat projectionVAMOS 15.1%HondurasNational Congress · seat projectionPNH 35.3%JamaicaHouse of Representatives · baseline forecastJLP 50.5%Trinidad and TobagoHouse of Representatives · baseline forecastUNC 54.0%GuyanaNational Assembly · seat projectionPPPC 55.3%IndiaLok Sabha vote intention · vote-share forecastNDA 47.0%IndonesiaDPR vote · seat projectionPDIP 16.7%JapanHouse of Representatives proportional vote · vote-share forecastLDP 31.4%PhilippinesHouse district vote · baseline forecastLAKAS 32.9%TurkeyGrand National Assembly · seat projectionAKP 32.4%South KoreaNational Assembly · vote-share forecastDPK 42.3%TaiwanLegislative Yuan party-list vote · baseline forecastDPP 36.2%IsraelKnesset seat projection · seat projectionLIKUD 24.4%MalaysiaDewan Rakyat coalition vote · baseline forecastPH 38.2%Sri LankaParliament · seat projectionNPP 61.6%NepalHouse of Representatives proportional vote · baseline forecastRSP 47.8%MongoliaState Great Khural party-list vote · baseline forecastMPP 35.0%New ZealandHouse of Representatives party vote · seat projectionLAB 30.7%Timor-LesteNational Parliament · seat projectionCNRT 41.6%FijiParliament · seat projectionFF 42.6%SamoaLegislative Assembly · baseline forecastFAST 40.9%South AfricaNational Assembly · seat projectionANC 38.5%GhanaParliament · baseline forecastNDC 52.9%BotswanaNational Assembly · baseline forecastUDC 37.2%NamibiaNational Assembly · seat projectionSWAPO 53.4%MauritiusNational Assembly · baseline forecastADC 61.4%Cape VerdeNational Assembly · seat projectionPAICV 48.0%SenegalNational Assembly · baseline forecastPASTEF 55.0%SeychellesNational Assembly · baseline forecastUS 49.1%LesothoNational Assembly · seat projectionRFP 38.9%MalawiPresidential vote · baseline forecastDPP 56.8%ZambiaNational Assembly · baseline forecastUPND 46.2%LiberiaHouse of Representatives · baseline forecastIND 25.7%The GambiaNational Assembly · baseline forecastNPP 29.2%São Tomé and PríncipeNational Assembly · seat projectionADI 46.9%RussiaState Duma · official result, not competitiveER 49.8%ArmeniaNational Assembly · baseline forecastCC 49.9%AzerbaijanMilli Majlis · official result, not competitiveYAP 50.4%BelarusPresidential · official result, not competitiveLUK 87.5%GeorgiaParliament · official result, not competitiveGD 53.9%Antigua and BarbudaHouse of Representatives · baseline forecastABLP 60.8%BahamasHouse of Assembly · baseline forecastPLP 52.3%BarbadosHouse of Assembly · baseline forecastBLP 69.8%BelizeHouse of Representatives · baseline forecastPUP 67.9%DominicaHouse of Assembly · official result, not competitiveDLP 82.4%GrenadaHouse of Representatives · baseline forecastNDC 51.8%Saint Kitts and NevisNational Assembly · baseline forecastSKNLP 45.7%Saint LuciaHouse of Assembly · baseline forecastSLP 55.8%Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesHouse of Assembly · baseline forecastNDP 57.7%NicaraguaPresidential · official result, not competitiveFSLN 75.9%SurinameNational Assembly · seat projectionNDP 34.2%El SalvadorLegislative Assembly · seat projectionNI 55.0%VenezuelaNational Assembly · official result, not competitiveGPP 83.5%SingaporeParliament · baseline forecastPAP 65.6%PakistanNational Assembly vote · baseline forecastPTI 31.2%BangladeshJatiya Sangsad vote · baseline forecastBNP 50.0%ThailandHouse of Representatives party-list vote · baseline forecastPP 31.5%CambodiaNational Assembly vote · official result, not competitiveCPP 82.3%MyanmarPyithu Hluttaw vote · official result, not competitiveUSDP 45.1%IranPresidential first-round vote · official result, not competitivePEZ 44.4%KazakhstanMazhilis party-list vote · official result, not competitiveAMANAT 53.9%UzbekistanLegislative Chamber party-list vote · official result, not competitiveLDPU 34.7%TajikistanAssembly of Representatives vote · official result, not competitivePDPT 53.0%BhutanNational Assembly primary-round vote · baseline forecastPDP 42.5%MaldivesPeople's Majlis vote · baseline forecastPNC 47.5%Solomon IslandsNational Parliament vote · baseline forecastOUR 24.1%VanuatuParliament vote · baseline forecastUMP 15.5%AlgeriaNational People's Assembly · official result, not competitiveOTH 73.8%AngolaNational Assembly · seat projectionMPLA 51.2%BeninNational Assembly · official result, not competitiveUPR 41.2%Burkina FasoNational Assembly · official result, not competitiveMPP 34.6%BurundiNational Assembly · official result, not competitiveCNDD 96.5%CameroonPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveCPDM 53.7%Central African RepublicPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveMCU 76.2%ChadPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveMPS 61.0%ComorosPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveCRC 57.0%Republic of the CongoPresidential vote · official result, not competitivePCT 94.9%Democratic Republic of the CongoPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveUDPS 73.5%Ivory CoastPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveRHDP 91.2%DjiboutiPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveRPP 97.0%EgyptPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveSISI 89.6%Equatorial GuineaPresidential vote · official result, not competitivePDGE 97.0%EthiopiaHouse of Peoples' Representatives · official result, not competitivePP 89.2%GabonPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveUDB 94.9%GuineaPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveMD 86.7%Guinea-BissauPeople's National Assembly · official result, not competitivePAITR 39.4%IraqCouncil of Representatives · baseline forecastOTH 38.7%JordanHouse of Representatives · official result, not competitiveOTH 38.4%KenyaPresidential vote · baseline forecastUDA 50.5%LebanonParliament · baseline forecastOTH 51.5%MadagascarNational Assembly · official result, not competitiveIRMAR 41.8%MaliPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveRPM 67.2%MauritaniaPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveINSAF 56.1%MoroccoHouse of Representatives · seat projectionRNI 27.6%MozambiqueAssembly of the Republic · official result, not competitiveFRE 71.4%NigerNational Assembly · official result, not competitivePNDS 37.0%NigeriaPresidential vote · baseline forecastAPC 36.6%PalestineLegislative Council · official result, not competitiveHAM 44.4%RwandaChamber of Deputies · official result, not competitiveRPF 68.8%SudanPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveNCP 94.1%Sierra LeoneParliament · seat projectionSLPP 56.7%TogoPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveUNIR 70.8%TunisiaPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveKS 90.7%TanzaniaPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveCCM 97.7%UgandaPresidential vote · official result, not competitiveNRM 71.7%YemenHouse of Representatives · official result, not competitiveGPC 57.8%ZimbabweNational Assembly · official result, not competitiveZANU 56.2%
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