The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 12 polls from 4 polling houses, newest 2026-06-25. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 65 days old · no recent polling).
PS29.1%±1.6▼ -1.7
AD24.5%±1.8▼ -1.4
CH23.3%±1.1▲ +1.8
IL6.7%±1.4▲ +1.5
L5.8%±1.1▲ +1.7
CDU2.5%±1.3▼ -1.3
BE2.0%±1.1▼ -0.2
Others6.1%
In this average · Aximage, ICS, Intercampus, Pitagórica. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.