The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 9 polls from 9 polling houses, newest 2026-06-30. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 60 days old · no recent polling).
PT41.8%±1.8▲ +2.6
PL33.4%±1.9▲ +3.9
PSD4.1%±1.1▲ +1.2
MIS4.1%±1.4▲ +0.6
NOVO2.7%±1.1▲ +0.8
AVA1.3%±1.1▲ +0.4
Others12.6%
In this average · AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Futura, Indexa, MDA, Nexus, PoderData, Quaest, Vox Brasil. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.