Polling average
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 8 polls from 8 polling houses, newest 2026-06-30. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the 30-day move.
PT41.8%±2.0▲ +2.6
PL33.3%±2.0▲ +3.7
MIS4.2%±1.5▲ +0.8
PSD4.1%±1.1▲ +1.1
NOVO2.6%±1.1▲ +0.7
AVA1.3%±1.1▲ +0.4
Others12.7%
In this average: AtlasIntel, Datafolha, Indexa, MDA, Nexus, PoderData, Quaest, Vox Brasil. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.