FAQ & glossary

What is a nowcast?

A nowcast answers one question. If the election were held today, what does current public polling imply? It is not a prediction of a future result and it carries no claim about what campaigns, events or late swings will do.

What is a poll average?

A weighted blend of recent published national polls. Newer polls count for more (a 10 day half life) and the small print on each page lists exactly which polling houses are in the blend.

What is a seat projection?

The poll average pushed through each country's electoral system. For first past the post countries that means uniform national swing applied to every seat's last result. For proportional countries it means the national allocation rule, thresholds included.

Why does a party lead the polls but trail on seats?

Electoral systems are not neutral. Vote that piles up in safe seats, or falls under a legal threshold, wins fewer seats per point.

What does the ± figure mean?

A 95 percent between poll band. It reflects how much the recent polls disagree with each other, not every source of error.

What is a toss up?

A race the model cannot call. We shade it pale rather than force a winner.

Why is a country grey or missing a map?

We only draw what we can source. Where official constituency geometry or results are not yet vendored, we say so rather than guess.

How often does everything update?

Poll feeds refresh daily by automation. Sport models refresh nightly in season.