The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 17 polls from 6 polling houses, newest 2026-05-14. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 107 days old · no recent polling).
AUR35.0%±2.9▼ -0.7
PSD20.9%±3.3▲ +1.7
PNL19.3%±1.8▲ +4.0
USR10.3%±1.4▼ -2.7
UDMR5.0%±1.1▲ +0.3
SOS3.0%±1.1▼ -0.5
POT2.1%±1.1▼ -0.8
Others4.4%
In this average · ARP, Avangarde, CURS, INSCOP, IRES, Sociopol. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.