Model audit
How our projections actually performed. For every tracked election the projection is refreshed nightly and then frozen the day before the vote, never edited again. Once the official count publishes we show it beside the frozen numbers and write down what the model got right, what it missed and what changes as a result. No retroactive edits, ever.
🇸🇪 Swedish general electionRiksdag · 2026-09-13Tracking · freezes the day before the vote
Projection · frozen 2026-07-02
S 117 · SD 70 · M 63 · V 30 · MP 25 · C 23 (of 349, majority 175)
🇷🇺 Russian State Duma electionState Duma · 2026-09-18Tracking · freezes the day before the vote
Not modelled. Included for the record only · no meaningful competition.
🇱🇻 Latvian parliamentary electionSaeima · 2026-10-03Tracking · freezes the day before the vote
Projection · frozen 2026-07-02
JV 23 · ZZS 20 · NA 18 · Progresivie 13 · AS 10 · LPV 9 (of 100, majority 51)
🇺🇸 US midterm electionsHouse & Senate · 2026-11-03Tracking · freezes the day before the vote
No snapshot yet.
The ledger is public at /audits.json and versioned in the open repository, so freezes are independently checkable.