The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 15 polls from 2 polling houses, newest 2026-06-15. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 75 days old · no recent polling).
SDP23.8%±1.1▼ -0.4
KOK17.6%±1.1▲ +0.4
KESK13.8%±1.1
PS13.6%±1.1
VAS11.2%±1.1▲ +0.2
VIHR8.8%±1.1▼ -0.4
RKP3.9%±1.1▲ +0.4
KD3.2%±1.1▼ -0.4
Others4.1%
In this average · Taloustutkimus, Verian. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.