The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 12 polls from 3 polling houses, newest 2026-06-24. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 66 days old · no recent polling).
Ind21.1%±1.1▼ -1.0
SF20.9%±1.1▼ -0.5
FG18.0%±1.1▲ +1.5
FF14.5%±1.2
SD11.7%±1.1▲ +2.0
AON6.1%±1.1▼ -1.0
Lab3.8%±1.1▼ -0.5
Greens3.0%±1.1
In this average · Ipsos B&A, Ireland Thinks, Red C. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.