The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 15 polls from 4 polling houses, newest 2026-06-28. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 62 days old · no recent polling).
S21.0%±1.1▼ -0.3
SF11.4%±1.1▼ -1.9
DF11.2%±1.1▲ +0.5
V10.1%±1.1▲ +0.7
LA9.6%±1.1▼ -0.1
K8.2%±1.1▼ -0.2
Enhl7.3%±1.1▲ +0.6
M6.7%±1.1
RV6.2%±1.1▲ +0.8
DD4.9%±1.1▼ -0.2
Others3.4%
In this average · Epinion, Megafon, Verian, Voxmeter. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.