The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 7 polls from 3 polling houses, newest 2026-06-14. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 76 days old · no recent polling).
PAS42.6%±5.9
PSRM17.5%±3.8
PPDA11.7%±2.5
PN6.8%±1.1
PCRM4.7%±1.7
MAN4.6%±1.1
PRIM2.8%±1.1
PDCM1.8%±1.1
PVM1.3%±1.1
Others6.2%
In this average · ATES, iData, IMAS. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.