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The MarginPolitics & Sport
Updated Aug 29
★ 2026 MidtermsHouse & Senate · Election Day Nov 366 days
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United States · Dem leads the poll average on 44.2%, ahead of Rep by 4.7 pts. · model card
Data notesGeneric-ballot modelSimulates the House and the 35 Senate seats upGovernors are rated on the states page, not modelled here
The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 12 polls from 7 polling houses, newest 2026-06-22. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 68 days old · no recent polling).
Dem44.2%±2.6
Rep39.5%±2.5
Others16.3%
In this average · Echelon Insights, Ipsos, Morning Consult, Quantus Insights, The Bullfinch Group, Verasight, YouGov. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.
Beyond Congress · the states
35 Senate seats are up in 2026 (13 Democratic-held, 22 Republican-held) and 36 governorships (18 D-held, 18 R-held). On current race ratings, Republicans start with 31 Senate seats not on the ballot to the Democrats' 34; the 4 Senate toss-ups · and which way the leaners break · decide control of the chamber. Full race-by-race ratings on the states page.
State governments · who runs what
StateGovernorState SenateState House
AlabamaRepublicanRepublican 27–8Republican 76–29
AlaskaRepublicanCoalition 14–6Coalition 21–19
ArizonaDemocraticRepublican 17–13Republican 33–27
ArkansasRepublicanRepublican 29–6Republican 81–19
CaliforniaDemocraticDemocratic 30–10Democratic 60–20
ColoradoDemocraticDemocratic 23–12Democratic 43–22
ConnecticutDemocraticDemocratic 25–11Democratic 102–49
DelawareDemocraticDemocratic 15–6Democratic 27–14
FloridaRepublicanRepublican 28–11–1Republican 87–33
GeorgiaRepublicanRepublican 33–23Republican 100–80
HawaiiDemocraticDemocratic 22–3Democratic 42–9
IdahoRepublicanRepublican 29–6Republican 61–9
IllinoisDemocraticDemocratic 40–19Democratic 78–40
IndianaRepublicanRepublican 40–10Republican 69–30-1
IowaRepublicanRepublican 33–17Republican 67–33
KansasDemocraticRepublican 31–9Republican 88–37
KentuckyDemocraticRepublican 32–6Republican 80–20
LouisianaRepublicanRepublican 27–12Republican 71–33–1
MaineDemocraticDemocratic 20–15Democratic 76-73-2
MarylandDemocraticDemocratic 34–13Democratic 102–39
MassachusettsDemocraticDemocratic 35–5Democratic 134–25–1
MichiganDemocraticDemocratic 20–18Republican 58–52
MinnesotaDemocratic (DFL)Democratic (DFL) 34–33Tied 67-67
MississippiRepublicanRepublican 34–18Republican 79–41–2
MissouriRepublicanRepublican 24–10Republican 111–52
MontanaRepublicanRepublican 32–18Republican 58–42
NebraskaRepublicanUnicameral Nonpartisan Legislature (De facto Republican 33–15-1)·
NevadaRepublicanDemocratic 13–8Democratic 27–15
New HampshireRepublicanRepublican 16–8Republican 222–178
New JerseyDemocraticDemocratic 25–15Democratic 57–23
New MexicoDemocraticDemocratic 26–16Democratic 44–26
New YorkDemocraticDemocratic 41–22Democratic 103–47
North CarolinaDemocraticRepublican 30–20Republican 71–49
North DakotaRepublicanRepublican 42–5Republican 83–11
OhioRepublicanRepublican 24–9Republican 65–34
OklahomaRepublicanRepublican 40–8Republican 81–20
OregonDemocraticDemocratic 18–12Democratic 36–24
PennsylvaniaDemocraticRepublican 27–23Democratic 102–101
Rhode IslandDemocraticDemocratic 34–4Democratic 64–10-1
South CarolinaRepublicanRepublican 34–12Republican 88–36
South DakotaRepublicanRepublican 32–3Republican 64–6
TennesseeRepublicanRepublican 27–6Republican 75–24
TexasRepublicanRepublican 20–11Republican 88–62
UtahRepublicanRepublican 22–6–1Republican 61–14
VermontRepublicanDemocratic 16–13–1Democratic 87–56–4–3
VirginiaDemocraticDemocratic 21–19Democratic 64–36
WashingtonDemocraticDemocratic 30–19Democratic 59–39
West VirginiaRepublicanRepublican 32–2Republican 91–9
WisconsinDemocraticRepublican 18–15Republican 54-45
WyomingRepublicanRepublican 28–2Republican 56–6
Party control of each governorship and state-legislative chamber. Seat counts reflect vacancies and special elections as of the source revision. Nebraska's unicameral Legislature is officially nonpartisan. Source: Political party strength in U.S. states (table revision 2026-06-10), cross-checked against the 2025 Virginia and New Jersey election results As of 2026-07-01.