The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 4 polls from 4 polling houses, newest 2026-06-29. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 61 days old · no recent polling).
KO31.4%±1.1▼ -1.6
PiS25.0%±1.1▼ -1.0
Konf12.6%±1.1▼ -1.5
KKP8.0%±1.1▼ -0.1
Lewica7.5%±1.1▼ -0.5
PSL3.1%±1.1
PL20501.6%±1.1
Others10.8%
In this average · DawidStats, Europe Elects, ewybory.eu, Politico. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.