Canada · LPC projected to win a majority with 207 of 343 seats. · model card
Data notesUniform national swing · not an MRPBloc contested only in QuébecNo local-candidate or riding-specific effects
The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 40 polls from 10 polling houses, newest 2026-06-22. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 68 days old · no recent polling).
LPC43.8%±1.4▼ -1.1
CPC33.0%±1.2
NDP11.1%±1.6▲ +1.0
BQ6.4%±1.1▲ +0.2
GPC3.3%±1.1▲ +0.5
PPC1.8%±1.1
In this average · Abacus Data, Angus Reid, Ekos, Liaison Strategies, Léger, Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research, Pallas Data, Research Co., Spark Insights. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.
The provinces · legislatures at a glance
Ontariolive estimate
Legislative Assembly of Ontario · 124 seats · majority 63
PCP · PCP 83 · NDP 22 · ONL 16
Quebeclive estimate
National Assembly of Quebec · 125 seats · majority 63
PQ · PQ 61 · QLP 39 · CAQ 16
British Columbialive estimate
Legislative Assembly of British Columbia · 93 seats · majority 47
BCC · BCC 46 · NDP 45 · GRN 2
Albertalive estimate
Legislative Assembly of Alberta · 87 seats · majority 44
UCP · UCP 53 · NDP 34
Manitobabaseline
Legislative Assembly of Manitoba · 57 seats · majority 29
NDP · NDP 34 · PCP 22 · LIB 1
Saskatchewanbaseline
Legislative Assembly of Saskatchewan · 61 seats · majority 31
SASKP · SASKP 34 · NDP 27
Nova Scotiabaseline
Nova Scotia House of Assembly · 55 seats · majority 28
PCP · PCP 43 · NDP 9 · LIB 2
New Brunswickbaseline
Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick · 49 seats · majority 25
LIB · LIB 31 · PCP 16 · GRN 2
Newfoundland & Labradorbaseline
House of Assembly of Newfoundland and Labrador · 40 seats · majority 21
PCP · PCP 21 · LIB 15 · NDP 2
Prince Edward Islandbaseline
Legislative Assembly of Prince Edward Island · 27 seats · majority 14
PCP · PCP 22 · GRN 3 · LIB 2
Every provincial legislature, seats as last elected with live polling layered in where confidently sourced. Full standings on the provinces & states page.