Every race, by the numbers
The Margin is a free, daily, numbers-first desk covering elections and sport around the world. Poll averages, seat projections and power ratings, built on open data, disclosed methods and no paywall.
One desk for every race
Most good electoral modelling sits behind a paywall or covers one country. The Margin is free and global. It carries daily poll averages for 166 democracies, constituency-level seat projections for the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Canada and Australia, honest seat estimates for the other European chambers, and Elo-based sport forecasts, all on one site. No login, no paywall.
We publish nowcasts and say so. Every figure describes the race as current data shows it, not as it will end. Every page shows its source and freshness, every model has a written methodology, and where a system cannot honestly be reduced to a seat number, France's two rounds for instance, we do not invent one. Figures are estimates.
Under the hood it is open data refreshed daily by an automated pipeline, with seat maps drawn from official boundary files. The site is small, fast and static where possible, and every chart is built to be embedded anywhere.
Who makes it
The Margin is a one-desk operation. The models, the maps and the words come from the same place, which is why the methods page discloses so much. The site's credibility rests on the work being checkable, not on the size of the masthead.
Press enquiries, data questions, corrections and everything else reach the same inbox, and it is read. For reuse of charts and data, cite The Margin and link back.
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Show the uncertainty
Every average carries its ± band, every projection is labelled a nowcast, and probabilities are printed rather than implied. Estimates are presented as estimates.
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Grey over guess
A race the data cannot call is shaded pale, and a map we cannot source stays grey. We would rather show less than pretend to know more.
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Cite everything
Pollsters and electoral authorities are named on the page where their numbers appear, and averages are compiled from the public polling record. The full list is on the sources page.
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Correct in the open
Errors are fixed quickly, logged with the date and what changed, and never quietly rewritten. Read the corrections policy.
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Free means free
No paywall, no login, no tracking. The data behind every chart is open and free to reuse with attribution.
- Politics. 166 countries with daily poll averages, from the US midterms to every EU member state and beyond.
- Seat projections for seven national systems and the European Parliament.
- Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London, plus Canadian provinces and Australian states.
- Every 2026 US Senate and Governor race, rated.
The numbers on this site are statistical estimates published in good faith. How they are made, and what they deliberately leave out, is documented in full on the methodology page.