The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 4 polls from 3 polling houses, newest 2026-06-16. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 74 days old · no recent polling).
Isamaa29.9%±1.1▼ -1.0
Reform18.1%±1.1▲ +1.0
EKRE16.7%±1.1▼ -0.5
Keskerakond14.3%±1.1▲ +0.5
SDE11.9%±1.1▲ +0.5
EE2005.9%±1.1▲ +0.5
Others3.2%
In this average · Kantar Emor, Norstat Eesti, Turu-uuringute AS. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.