The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 4 polls from 1 polling house, newest 2026-04-24. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 127 days old · no recent polling).
CSV21.8%±1.1
DP21.5%±1.1
LSAP20.9%±1.1
ADR11.4%±1.1
deiGreng9.5%±1.1
deiLenk5.8%±1.1
Piraten3.8%±1.1
Others5.3%
In this average · TNS Ilres. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.