The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 10 polls from 6 polling houses, newest 2026-07-01. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 59 days old · no recent polling).
LIKUD24.4%±2.4
YASHAR20.6%±1.1
TOG15.6%±2.1
DEMS10.1%±1.1
YB9.8%±1.1
SHAS8.9%±1.1
OTZMA8.3%±1.1
UTJ7.5%±1.1
HT5.9%±1.1
RAAM4.6%±1.1
RZP4.3%±1.1
In this average · Direct Polls, Filber, Kantar, Lazar, Maagar Mochot, Midgam. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.