Italy · FdI leads the poll average on 28.0%, ahead of PD by 6.4 pts. · model card
Data notesMixed PR + single-member systemCoalition mapping is approximateSingle-member seats on a uniform swing
The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 40 polls from 17 polling houses, newest 2026-06-26. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 64 days old · no recent polling).
FdI28.0%±1.1▼ -0.1
PD21.6%±1.1▼ -0.1
M5S12.7%±1.1
FI7.9%±1.1
Lega6.5%±1.1▼ -0.3
AVS6.4%±1.1▼ -0.1
IV2.3%±1.1▼ -0.1
Others14.6%
In this average · BiDiMedia, Cassandra, Demopolis, EMG, Eumetra, Europe Elects, Ipsos, Istituto Piepoli, Only Numbers, Politico Europe, PolitPro, Sigma Piave, SWG, Tecnè. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.