Germany · AfD projected largest on 203 of 630 seats, 113 short of a majority. · model card
Data notesSecond-vote proportional (2025 reform)5% threshold decides list seatsOverhang/levelling seats abolished
The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 40 polls from 10 polling houses, newest 2026-06-19. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 71 days old · no recent polling).
AfD28.1%±1.1▼ -0.2
Union22.1%±1.1▼ -0.6
Gru13.9%±1.1▲ +0.4
SPD12.4%±1.1▼ -0.1
Lin10.8%±1.1▼ -0.4
FDP4.0%±1.1▲ +0.5
BSW3.2%±1.1▼ -0.2
Others5.5%
Threshold watch · near the 5% Bundestag threshold: FDP 4.0%. A party landing the wrong side of the line wins no list seats, so small moves here swing the whole chamber.
In this average · Allensbach, Forsa, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, GMS, Infratest dimap, INSA, Ipsos, pollytix, Verian, YouGov. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.