The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 13 polls from 5 polling houses, newest 2026-06-21. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 69 days old · no recent polling).
ANO32.3%±1.2▼ -1.4
SPOLU19.4%±1.5▲ +0.3
STAN14.3%±1.1▲ +0.1
Piráti8.0%±1.1▲ +0.3
SPD7.4%±1.1▲ +0.2
Motoristé5.1%±1.1▲ +1.1
STAC1.2%±1.1▼ -0.8
SOCDEM1.2%±1.1▼ -0.8
Others11.1%
In this average · Ipsos, Kantar, Median, NMS Market Research, STEM. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.