Polling average
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 11 polls from 5 polling houses, newest 2026-06-21. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the 30-day move.
LAB30.7%±3.2▲ +0.3
NAT29.8%±1.1▼ -0.2
GRN12.4%±1.2▲ +1.8
NZF11.3%±1.1▼ -0.9
ACT7.8%±1.3▼ -0.4
TOP4.9%±1.3
TPM2.5%±1.1▼ -0.4
In this average: 1 News-Verian, Roy Morgan, Talbot Mills, Taxpayers' Union-Curia, The Post-Freshwater Strategy. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.