The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 12 polls from 7 polling houses, newest 2026-06-26. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 64 days old · no recent polling).
PP32.8%±1.1▲ +0.3
PSOE27.1%±1.1▼ -0.9
Vox17.8%±1.1▲ +0.3
Sumar6.1%±1.1▲ +0.2
ERC1.9%±1.1
SALF1.9%±1.1▼ -0.1
EHB1.4%±1.1
Junts1.3%±1.1▼ -0.1
PNV1.2%±1.1
Others8.5%
In this average · 40dB, CIS, EM-Analytics, InvyMark, Sigma Dos, SocioMétrica, Target Point. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.