Australia · ALP projected to win a majority with 89 of 150 seats. · model card
Data notesTwo-party-preferred uniform swing13 crossbench seats heldNo redistribution or teal-specific modelling
The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 39 polls from 9 polling houses, newest 2026-06-22. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 68 days old · no recent polling).
ALP53.5%±1.2▲ +0.6
LNP46.5%±1.2▼ -0.6
In this average · DemosAU, EMRS, Fox & Hedgehog, Freshwater, Newspoll, RedBridge, Resolve, Roy Morgan, YouGov. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.
The states · parliaments at a glance
New South Walesbaseline
NSW Legislative Assembly · 93 seats · majority 47
ALP · ALP 45 · LNP 36 · IND 9
Victorialive estimate
Victorian Legislative Assembly · 88 seats · majority 45
ALP · ALP 43 · LNP 39 · GRN 4
Queenslandlive estimate
Queensland Legislative Assembly · 93 seats · majority 47
LNP · LNP 54 · ALP 34 · IND 4
Western Australiabaseline
WA Legislative Assembly · 59 seats · majority 30
ALP · ALP 46 · LNP 7 · NAT 6
South Australiabaseline
SA House of Assembly · 47 seats · majority 24
ALP · ALP 34 · LNP 5 · ONP 4
Tasmaniabaseline
Tasmanian House of Assembly · 35 seats · majority 18
LNP · LNP 14 · ALP 10 · IND 6
Every state lower house, seats as last elected with live polling layered in where confidently sourced. Full standings on the provinces & states page.