The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 10 polls from 2 polling houses, newest 2026-06-15. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 75 days old · no recent polling).
GL-PvdA16.4%±1.1▲ +0.6
VVD13.6%±1.1▼ -0.8
D6612.6%±1.1▲ +1.0
PVV11.0%±2.0▼ -2.9
CDA9.5%±1.1▼ -0.8
JA219.0%±1.1▲ +1.3
FvD8.1%±1.1▲ +1.7
PvdD3.5%±1.1▲ +0.1
SP3.4%±1.1▲ +0.5
50+2.9%±1.1▼ -0.1
SGP2.5%±1.1
CU2.3%±1.1▼ -0.1
DENK2.2%±1.1▼ -0.6
Volt1.7%±1.1▼ -0.1
BBB1.3%±1.1▲ +0.2
In this average · Ipsos I&O, Verian. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.