The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 2 polls from 1 polling house, newest 2026-05-23. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 98 days old · no recent polling).
NI55.0%±1.1
VAMOS2.7%±1.1
ARENA1.3%±1.1
FMLN0.8%±1.1
Others40.2%
In this average · LPG Datos. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.