The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 12 polls from 5 polling houses, newest 2026-05-25. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 96 days old · no recent polling).
FrP29.6%±1.1▲ +0.9
Ap22.3%±1.1▲ +1.0
H16.9%±1.1▼ -1.1
R7.0%±1.1▼ -0.3
Sp5.2%±1.1▼ -0.2
SV5.0%±1.1▼ -0.4
KrF4.0%±1.1▲ +0.6
MDG3.9%±1.1
V3.2%±1.1▼ -0.6
Others2.9%
In this average · Norfakta, Norstat, Opinion, Respons Analyse, Verian. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.