Model card
Italy
Italy · FdI leads the poll average on 28.0%, ahead of PD by 6.4 pts.
What this model does
Rosatellum: proportional seats by largest remainder + single-member seats to the plurality coalition; the map swings each 2022 collegio.
Data
Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: IT CSV.
Important caveat
This is a nowcast · what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.