Model card
Canada
Canada · LPC projected to win a majority with 207 of 343 seats.
What this model does
Uniform national swing applied to the official 2025 result across 343 ridings.
Data
Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: CA CSV.
Important caveat
This is a nowcast · what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.