Model card
Australia
Australia · ALP projected to win a majority with 89 of 150 seats.
What this model does
Uniform two-party-preferred swing off the 2025 pendulum across 150 seats; the crossbench is held.
Data
Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: AU CSV.
Important caveat
This is a nowcast · what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.