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The Margin★ Midterms 2026 · 124d
Model card

El Salvador

El Salvador: NI leads the polling average on 70.6%, ahead of ARENA by 63.3 pts.

What this model does

Data

Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: SV CSV.

Important caveat

This is a nowcast · what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.

Open the full El Salvador projection → · All methodology