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The MarginPolitics & Sport
Updated Aug 29
Model card

Poland

Poland · Civic Coalition projected largest on 171 of 460 seats, 60 short of a majority.

What this model does

Data

Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: PL CSV.

Important caveat

This is a nowcast · what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.

Open the full Poland projection → · All methodology