Model card
New Zealand
New Zealand: LAB leads the polling average on 30.7%, ahead of NAT by 0.9 pts.
What this model does
Data
Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: NZ CSV.
Important caveat
This is a nowcast · what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.