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The Margin★ Midterms 2026 · 124d
Model card

Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau: PAITR leads the polling average on 39.4%, ahead of MADEM by 15.0 pts.

What this model does

Data

Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: GW CSV.

Important caveat

This is a nowcast · what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.

Open the full Guinea-Bissau projection → · All methodology