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The MarginPolitics & Sport
Updated Aug 29
Model card

Brazil

Brazil · Workers' Party (Lula) leads the poll average on 41.8%, ahead of Liberal Party (F. Bolsonaro) by 8.4 pts.

What this model does

Data

Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: BR CSV.

Important caveat

This is a nowcast · what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.

Open the full Brazil projection → · All methodology