France · RN leads the poll average on 34.0%, ahead of NFP by 9.8 pts. · model card
Data notesFirst-round shares onlyTwo-round run-offs are not simulatedAlliance mapping is approximateLegislative polls are infrequent · latest available is Oct 2025 (no 2026 polls exist yet)
The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 8 polls from 5 polling houses, newest 2025-10-08. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 325 days old · no recent polling).
RN34.0%±1.5▲ +2.4
NFP24.2%±1.1▼ -0.7
ENS14.9%±1.1▲ +0.4
LR12.3%±1.1▲ +0.8
REC4.4%±1.1▲ +0.2
Others10.2%
In this average · Cluster17, Elabe, Harris, Ifop, OpinionWay. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.