Data notesUniform national swing · not an MRPBloc contested only in QuébecNo local-candidate or riding-specific effects
The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 40 polls from 10 polling houses, newest 2026-06-22. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 68 days old · no recent polling).
LPC43.8%±1.4▼ -1.1
CPC33.0%±1.2
NDP11.1%±1.6▲ +1.0
BQ6.4%±1.1▲ +0.2
GPC3.3%±1.1▲ +0.5
PPC1.8%±1.1
In this average · Abacus Data, Angus Reid, Ekos, Liaison Strategies, Léger, Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research, Pallas Data, Research Co., Spark Insights. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.