Data notesTwo-party-preferred uniform swing13 crossbench seats heldNo redistribution or teal-specific modelling
The forecast model
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 39 polls from 9 polling houses, newest 2026-06-22. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the shift between the two most recent polling windows (newest poll is 68 days old · no recent polling).
ALP53.5%±1.2▲ +0.6
LNP46.5%±1.2▼ -0.6
In this average · DemosAU, EMRS, Fox & Hedgehog, Freshwater, Newspoll, RedBridge, Resolve, Roy Morgan, YouGov. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.