Model card
Portugal
Portugal: PS leads the polling average on 29.2%, ahead of AD by 4.0 pts.
What this model does
Data
Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: PT CSV.
Important caveat
This is a nowcast — what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.