Canada: LPC leads the polling average on 43.0%, ahead of CPC by 9.9 pts. · model card
Data notesUniform national swing — not an MRPBloc contested only in QuébecNo local-candidate or riding-specific effects
Polling average
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 40 polls from 10 pollsters, newest 2026-06-22. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the 30-day move.
LPC43.8%±1.4▼ -1.1
CPC33.0%±1.2
NDP11.1%±1.6▲ +1.0
BQ6.4%±1.1▲ +0.2
GPC3.3%±1.1▲ +0.5
PPC1.8%±1.1
In this average: Abacus Data, Angus Reid, Ekos, Liaison Strategies, Léger, Mainstreet Research, Nanos Research, Pallas Data, Research Co., Spark Insights. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.