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The Margin
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Australia: ALP leads the polling average on 53.6%, ahead of LNP by 7.2 pts. · model card
Data notesTwo-party-preferred uniform swing13 crossbench seats heldNo redistribution or teal-specific modelling
Polling average
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 40 polls from 11 pollsters, newest 2026-06-22. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the 30-day move.
ALP53.5%±1.2▲ +0.6
LNP46.5%±1.2▼ -0.6
In this average: DemosAU, EMRS, Fox & Hedgehog, Freshwater, Newspoll, RedBridge/Acccent, RedBridge/Accent, Redbridge, Resolve, Roy Morgan, YouGov. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.