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The Margin
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United States: Dem leads the polling average on 45.2%, ahead of Rep by 4.5 pts. ยท model card
Data notesGeneric-ballot modelHouse seats only โ€” no Senate or governors yetNational swing, not district-by-district
Polling average
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 12 polls from 7 pollsters, newest 2026-06-22. The ยฑ figure is a 95% between-poll band; โ–ฒโ–ผ is the 30-day move.
Dem44.2%ยฑ2.6
Rep39.5%ยฑ2.5
In this average: Echelon Insights, Ipsos, Morning Consult, Quantus Insights, The Bullfinch Group, Verasight, YouGov. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.