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The Margin
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Polling average
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 12 polls from 4 pollsters, newest 2026-06-25. The ยฑ figure is a 95% between-poll band; โ–ฒโ–ผ is the 30-day move.
PS29.1%ยฑ1.6โ–ผ -1.7
AD24.5%ยฑ1.8โ–ผ -1.4
CH23.3%ยฑ1.1โ–ฒ +1.8
IL6.7%ยฑ1.4โ–ฒ +1.5
L5.8%ยฑ1.1โ–ฒ +1.7
CDU2.5%ยฑ1.3โ–ผ -1.3
BE2.0%ยฑ1.1โ–ผ -0.2
In this average: Aximage, ICS/ISCTE, Intercampus, Pitagรณrica. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.