France: RN leads the polling average on 32.8%, ahead of NFP by 8.7 pts. · model card
Data notesFirst-round shares onlyTwo-round run-offs are not simulatedAlliance mapping is approximate
Polling average
Recency-weighted (10-day half-life) across 9 polls from 5 pollsters, newest 2025-10-07. The ± figure is a 95% between-poll band; ▲▼ is the 30-day move.
RN34.0%±1.5▲ +2.4
NFP24.2%±1.1▼ -0.7
ENS14.9%±1.1▲ +0.4
LR12.3%±1.1▲ +0.8
REC4.4%±1.1▲ +0.2
In this average: Cluster17, Elabe, Harris, Ifop, OpinionWay. Polls are unweighted by sample size (vendor sizes aren't published in our feed). Estimates, not forecasts.