About The Margin
A free, daily, numbers-first look at elections and sport around the world — one desk for every race.
The idea
Most good electoral modelling sits behind a paywall or covers one country. The Margin is free and global: poll averages and constituency-level seat projections for the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada and Australia (with more democracies coming), plus Elo-based sport forecasts. No login, no paywall.
Honesty first
We publish nowcasts and say so. Every page shows its data source and freshness, every model has a written methodology, and where a system can't be honestly reduced to a seat number (France's two rounds) we don't invent one. Figures are estimates.
How it's built
Open data, refreshed daily by an automated pipeline. The seat maps are drawn from official boundary files. It's a small, fast, static-where-possible site — built to be embedded anywhere.