Model card
Spain
Spain: PP leads the polling average on 32.7%, ahead of PSOE by 5.6 pts.
What this model does
Data
Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: ES CSV.
Important caveat
This is a nowcast — what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.