Model card
France
France: RN leads the polling average on 32.8%, ahead of NFP by 8.7 pts.
What this model does
First-round leader projected per circonscription; seats are not modelled because they turn on two-round run-offs.
Data
Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: FR CSV.
Important caveat
This is a nowcast — what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.