Model card
United States
United States: Dem leads the polling average on 45.2%, ahead of Rep by 4.5 pts.
What this model does
A generic-ballot poll average mapped to the House via the district forecast model.
Data
Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: US CSV.
Important caveat
This is a nowcast — what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.