Model card
Australia
Australia: ALP leads the polling average on 53.6%, ahead of LNP by 7.2 pts.
What this model does
Uniform two-party-preferred swing off the 2025 pendulum across 150 seats; the crossbench is held.
Data
Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: AU CSV.
Important caveat
This is a nowcast — what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.