Model card
Italy
Italy: FdI leads the polling average on 27.9%, ahead of PD by 6.5 pts.
What this model does
Rosatellum: proportional seats by largest remainder + single-member seats to the plurality coalition; the map swings each 2022 collegio.
Data
Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: IT CSV.
Important caveat
This is a nowcast — what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.