Model card
Germany
Germany: AfD leads the polling average on 28.2%, ahead of Union by 6.5 pts.
What this model does
Proportional (Sainte-Laguë) allocation of 630 seats among parties above 5%; the map swings each 2025 Wahlkreis.
Data
Recent public polls, recency-weighted into a national average and refreshed daily. Download the raw recent polls: DE CSV.
Important caveat
This is a nowcast — what current polling implies if an election were held now, not a prediction of a future result. It carries real uncertainty; where shown, the 9-in-10 seat range and probability come from simulating polling error.